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 Posté le: Jeu Aoû 08, 2013 6:59 pm Sujet du message: Oriental Fortune - Premier sound macro digestive c |
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Premier sound macro-control capacity to digest as a "minimum security" handle
7 9 January, with June various macro economic data another disclosure, economic growth continued to slow in the second quarter, almost no suspense.
current domestic and foreign investment bank analysts on GDP are focused on growth forecasts of 7.5% or so. Outer media reports, was held at the 12th US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the Chinese Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei said at the press conference that "the Chinese Government to accept the bottom line of economic growth of 6.5% or 7% growth will not become a big problem. "It seems that the Chinese government's tolerance for the economic slowdown is higher than market expectations.
on the economic situation in the market for the second half will continue to put the cache dispute, July 9,motorcycle brake lever, Premier Li Keqiang research in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the proposed regulation "interval" theory, that is, economic growth, employment levels , which do not slide out "lower limit", price increases, which do not exceed "ceiling" within a reasonable range for adjusting structure, promoting reform and promote economic restructuring and upgrading tasks.
this position or that economic policy direction in the second half of the critical moment, "steady growth" is still the main theme of the current phase.
structural adjustment approach growth "limit"
"steady growth can adjust the structure to create an effective space and conditions, adjusting the structure to add potential for economic development, the two complement each other; while breaking through the reform of structural and institutional obstacles, you can adjust the structure of steady growth and new impetus. "The Premier Li Keqiang Guangxi re steady growth, adjusting structure and promoting reform interpretation of the relationship between the three, you can see, steady growth and structural adjustment, economic restructuring are not opposing, the former is the basis for the latter two.
re-emphasize the "steady growth" of the importance or because the real economy is approaching the government acceptable "limit."
According to the disclosure of data, June CPI rose 2.7 percent rebound while, PPI continue negative growth of 2.7%, which is the data for 16 consecutive months in contraction interval, CPI and PPI scissors to expand, and even lead to market economy "stagflation" concerns.
cost of doing business on behalf of industrial producer prices (PPI) index and manufacturing PMI leading indicator is to observe the entity an important indicator of economic performance, but this year, The two data signals are passed out, all point to the real economy weak.
Since March
2012, PPI has not been possible out of the "negative growth" range. In the first five months, PPI data monthly decline began to expand, respectively, -1.6%, -1.6%, -1.9%, -2.6%, -2.9%.
PPI deflation, showing Chinese demand side is still weak, but the price of the domestic entity to exercise pressure on the profitability of enterprises is gradually increased.
another leading indicator PMI 6 months, has a double drop. July 1 official data show that in June China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, the chain dropped 0.7 percentage points to its lowest level in four months. Meanwhile, in June the final value of the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI recorded a seasonally adjusted 48.2% last month, down only one percentage point, also lower than the previously announced 48.3% of the initial value. In January of the data has been restored to a high of two years of 51.9%.
In particular, in June in China's manufacturing PMI new export orders index and new orders index fell, indicating China's manufacturing exports and domestic demand are shrinking.
"SME managers generally feel more difficult, mainly in the market, capital structure and other aspects and problems." Chinese small and medium business enterprises Association executive vice president Kongqing Tai to the "China Business" reporter confirmed.
manufacturing slump dragged down the overall economic recovery. The 10th-baked import Data June exports fell 3.1%, the growth rate hit a 44 month low. Imports continued negative growth in May, down 0.7%, which is the second in January 2012, the import and export of reproduction double down.
"by the end of June this year, General Administration of Customs on nearly 2,000 enterprises in the survey data show that 49.2% of companies reflects the new year in the amount of export orders decreased 43.8% of companies reflects the next 2 to 3 months export situation is not optimistic, with 69.1% of companies reflects the export integrated costs are increasing, suggesting the third quarter, China's export situation is still not optimistic. "Customs spokesman Zheng Yue sound representation.
decline in exports shows the trend still no improvement in external demand, while imports declined then prove that domestic demand is not strong. June PPI in the industrial producer price display, ferrous metals, fuel and power, nonferrous metals, chemical and other heavy industrial decline bigger. Industrial prices continue to fall reflecting domestic demand remains weak, especially in heavy industry faces pressure to the stock.
CSC senior vice president of Research and Development An Wei interview with reporters, said, "PPI displays the real economy was still cold, no highlights the demand side, the supply-side pressure, a lot of excess capacity so that the PPI rebound fatigue, the only thing Market eliminate backward production capacity, industrial prices only pick up. "
overcapacity resulting in the overall pattern of supply is greater than demand, which will continue to influence the future trend of PPI and status, this trend of negative growth this year may be difficult to be reversed.
Perhaps the real economy in order to find out the real difficulties, beginning in mid-June, the central leaders and ministries were dispatched to various localities to start research. The one from the Ministry of Commerce official said, excess investment in industries and key areas of focus of this research.
China Reform Foundation, Wang Xiaolu, deputy director of National Economic Research Institute believes that now the country's economic policy should adhere to structural adjustment, beware of excessively loose monetary policy, economic growth down the accumulation of structural imbalance is the result of long, coming period we should be subject to adjustment pains.
neutral monetary policy steady growth
years in national economic situation analysis will be held before the local government has conducted a preliminary summary. By the impact of regulation, the beginning of growth targets set by the provinces generally high growth rate is not up to expectations.
Guizhou's GDP growth target is 14%, but this year a quarter GDP growth was 12.6%; Inner Mongolia this year's economic growth target is 12%, but an increase of only 9.9%; Shaanxi Province is expected to increase 12.5% in early , a quarter achieved only 11.2%.
rely mainly on the stimulation of investment for these provinces, the central bank in June between the rigid attitude shown by the second half herald the tightening of monetary policy will turn quite worried.
"short-term liquidity situation in the worst is over, July marginal improvement also occurred within the logic, we estimate that the reserve contribution in early July after such incidents in the past, funds rate will appear qoq improvement, but the entire second half of the liquidity will be a little tight in the first half." Zhejiang Securities senior macroeconomic researcher Guo Lei told reporters.
Guo Lei opinion, first of all, from the source of funds of view. Foreign exchange in the second half of 2013 will be significantly weaker than in the first half. "With the rebound in U.S. bond yields in May, we see emerging markets have a capital flow out of the signs, estimated that this will continue for at least a net outflow a quarter, which means the second half of the imported mobility will become less. "
1 April new foreign exchange reaching record highs. The central bank on March 5 released statistics show that as a foreign exchange amounted to 26.537007 trillion yuan at the end of China, Jan. single month new foreign exchange amounted to 683.659 billion yuan, a record high.
But in May, the central bank foreign exchange added 101.3 billion yuan caliber, and in April that the data is 284.3 billion yuan, a decline of 64%, a record low since 6 months.
respondents expected in June will be further reduced, foreign exchange may have been the turning point of arrival. Into the third quarter, these negative factors will be further enhanced if the central bank's policy to hedge without easing, liquidity may be transferred from the tight loose.
"the central bank refused to turn on the water to withstand the pressure, is to regulate capital flows to." In the industry view, because the first half of the M1, M2, and social total financing rapid growth, but did not transfer to the real economy, but part of the funds into industries with excess capacity, as well as the early part of the funds to be used for debt service, large amount of capital in the financial system within the idling.
For no transfer to the real economy, Deutsche Bank Greater China chief economist Jun Ma told reporters that the entity lack of confidence in the economy and even decline is also an important reason. He cited the high costs such as corporate finance, exchange rate appreciation is too fast, prices, deflationary expectations on economic growth (orders) pessimistic expectations, policy instability, etc. are causes.
"base money expansion in the first half too fast, the total social financing higher decision-making levels in the second half will be conscious of their risk, will not let money into the accelerated expansion of the state; but not too tight, because the economic downturn has exceeded market expected. "An Analysis of Wei told reporters.
7 1 May, the State Council announced the "financial support for economic restructuring and transformation and upgrading of the guidance," with "digest batch transfer batch, batch integration, eliminate a number of" industrial policy requirements, propose appropriate financial policies, and jointly promote digestion and suppress excess capacity, supports advanced capacity. This can also be regarded as a signal supplied to the second half of economic policy.
key decision-makers in the early release of information, slum upgrading, railway investment, energy saving and environmental protection industries Huimin expected to get priority support.
Guo Lei believes that the second half was "good use of incremental and revitalize the stock," so the overall money supply or maintain an overall balance. But he believes, possibly through a number of other measures to reduce capital rate , including channel clearing (before banks are financing that money into poor access), etc. If through the channel The capital costs down, and cut down the standard of this effect is the same, but the significance will be a little larger.
(Editor: DF081) |
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